Subtlety Performance evolution
If you look back at the statistics for Nerub-ar Palace and change to 11.1, Subtlety is one of the top-performing specs. This is a consequence of tuning changes implemented with the patch change. The Season 2 Tier Set was initially noticeably stronger during the PTR cycle, a bit too strong, and as such, it got heavily nerfed. However, the overall performance of Subtlety was not outstanding, and compensation buffs got handed out as a consequence.
The buff led to the outstanding performance in the pre-season and is, in the end, the reason we saw a roughly 3% nerf in the early tuning patch. This nerf seemed unwarranted, in my opinion, because the so gained damage lead is only temporary due to the lack of itemization from season 2.
To start off with Heroic, Subtlety can shine on fights with either frequent adds or burst phases. The burst of the spec is one of the highest in the game and fits decently well to encounter mechanics with a 90-second timer.
This can be seen on Vexie and the Geargrinders and Rik Reverb, where Subtlety is in the first position damage-wise at the time of writing this article.
Going into details, Vexie and the Geargrinders is a fight where the boss takes double damage during Mechanical Breakdown. Damage cooldowns align extremely well with the first intermission around the 90 second mark and the second typically around 270 seconds in the fight. Both lines up perfectly with the major cooldowns Flagellation and Shadow Blades. Rik Reverb has the first intermission around 120 seconds into the fight, the first downtime comes after the 2nd use of major cooldowns and, as such, is fairly irrelevant. The fight also features frequent adds, which can be comfortably killed with passive cleave and the burst from Secret Technique.
The longer fight length positons Subtlety slightly lower in Mythic but overall still within the top ranks.
The Mythic statistic as of now only includes the first 3 fights, and not all of the follow-up fights are extremely good for us. Other classes can put out more damage on pure single target, and we already saw hints at raid teams in the world first race benching their rogues for at least one of the follow-up bosses. While I assume this is only one exception, it is very hard to predict before seeing the fights on mythic difficulty.
Future
Some advantages could make Subtlety or Rogue valuable in later stages of the raid. To quickly outline them, Subtlety has extremely good survivability with Cloak of Shadows, Cheat Death, Feint and defensive nodes like Ephemeral Bond. The damage profile is unique, with strong burst cooldowns every 90 seconds and smaller burst windows in between. Additional strong passive cleave from Secret Technique and Nimble Flurry. All mentioned on top of the damage reduction from Atrophic Poison should be valuable on later fights in the raid, and let me assume to see at least one Rogue played in most raid compositions.
As for performance, Subtlety will likely move slightly down, more towards the middle of the pack once we have more bosses in the pool for the Mythic statistic. This is still not a bad position to be in. Later fights do seem good for the damage profile, and as such, I am not worried. We are currently not only good in raid, but are within the best performers in Mythic+, which is a good excuse to learn the specialization.
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